Sep 08 2023

China's Exports Decline - September 2023

 

China's exports decline for the fourth consecutive month in August amid weak external demand and ongoing global supply chain challenges as the world's second-largest economy struggles to find relief post the pandemic.  

Although the declines have narrowed since July, China’s exports fell by 8.8 per cent, year on year, to US$284.9 billion in August as exports to most of their major trading partners continued to sink.

 

The narrowing declines took place amid;

  • The Yuan's rapid depreciation resulting in Chinese products being cheaper and more competitive in August.
  • Delayed delivery of orders due to Typhoon disruptions in July.
  • A lower comparable figure in August 2022.

 

China's imports fell by 7.3% in August, a considerable difference from the 12.4% decline in July. These results however, are reported as values so there is uncertainty as to how much of the change is an increase in volume or simply represents higher prices e.g. significantly higher global oil prices in August compared to July. 

 

China’s total trade surplus in August stood at US$68.4 billion, down from US$80.6 billion in July, as imports accelerated more than exports. There may be some more short-term rebound in China’s trade and economy, but longer term concerns are still there due to political and geopolitical factors such as the US-led de-risking strategy.

 

China's export market statistics

 

Chinese policymakers have also placed their focus on domestic economic challenges, particularly the local property market as demand remains weak. A wave of policy changes have been implemented over the past few weeks and Beijing will likely introduce further measures should there be no improvement on a macro level. 

 

The above still suggests that strong headwinds remain despite some marginal improvement with overall momentum remaining unimpressive.

 

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